Image: Paul Krueger / City of Vancouver, Transportation Planning
Frequently, we hear about groundbreaking innovations or advancements, yet many of us may never witness them firsthand due to lengthy development and regulatory processes. A prime example is the development of cancer treatments, which can take up to 20 years from initial announcement to actual patient use.
Typically, it’s the next generation that reaps the rewards of these advancements, and fortunately so.
However, there are times when innovations emerge much faster than expected. Reports indicate that self-driving or autonomous vehicles are not merely futuristic concepts; they are on the verge of becoming a reality that we will soon encounter. The pace of development is astonishing.
Take Tesla Motors as an example. Founded in 2003, this electric vehicle manufacturer has rapidly risen to become the largest car brand in America, surpassing Ford, which held the title for 114 years while Tesla has only been in existence for 14 years. Tesla has accomplished milestones in quick succession that traditionally take years to achieve, including the production of the first commercial electric vehicle, the world’s fastest electric vehicle, and the first mainstream foray into autonomous driving with their Autopilot feature. Recent announcements from Tesla also reveal plans for a self-driving car-sharing service, where users can access autonomous vehicles without owning them—an idea supported by compelling logic and figures (more details on this later). Additionally, the company is expanding its offerings to include smaller cars, trucks, minibuses, and a significant solar energy initiative.
This rapid development trend is becoming the norm within the electric and autonomous vehicle (EV/AV) sector. Announcements are flowing in with such frequency that it can be overwhelming to keep up.
Though we can observe the gradual arrival of autonomous vehicles, the target year often mentioned for widespread adoption is alarmingly close—2020. Companies like Alphabet and Ford have consistently expressed ambitions to introduce self-driving fleets offering ride-hailing services at the beginning of the next decade. This goal is further underscored by Japan’s commitment to utilize driverless vehicles for transporting athletes and officials during the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games.
Considering these developments, it’s hard not to believe that by the time my potential grandchildren reach “driving age,” they may not need a driver’s license or even own a car. Experts suggest that this vision of the future could lead to an astounding $1 trillion increase in disposable income for individuals, primarily due to decreased revenue in the oil industry and reductions in new car purchases, maintenance costs, insurance premiums, and overall vehicle-related expenses.
Ultimately, these events will likely be viewed in history as a profound overnight transformation.
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