While the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association started the year with a prediction that the food-away-from-home sector would experience a growth of 0.9% in 2024, they revealed on Tuesday in their Segment Projections that the decline in consumer foot traffic posed challenges, particularly for restaurants, when anticipating future consumer behavior. Fast casual restaurants defied the trend, demonstrating an optimistic growth of 1.3%, a significant adjustment from the initial forecast of 0.9% in February. Quick-service restaurants, which have consistently outperformed other segments in recent years, are anticipated to grow by just 0.7%.
“These have been, and we anticipate will continue to be, volatile times for the food-away-from-home industry,” expressed IFMA’s President and CEO, Phil Kafarakis, in a press release. “IFMA is prepared to offer practical insights, educational resources, and networking platforms for manufacturers, operators, and supply chain partners, regardless of the challenges that lie ahead. Our detailed forecasts and analyses are available to our members to consult as they strategize for the future. We are dedicated to delivering thoughtful and actionable insights to the sector.”
IFMA has adjusted its overall price inflation projections for 2024 downwards from 5% in February to 3.8%, indicating a deceleration in the cost of goods sold by food-away-from-home establishments.
Consumers, particularly those with lower incomes, are seeking to constrain their spending on foodservice, but the industry’s onsite segments, such as college, university, and healthcare foodservices, are on track to outperform the broader restaurant sector, as per the report. With potential reductions in energy costs and interest rates, IFMA foresees that consumer-driven growth will impact 2025, resulting in a real growth rate of 1% for the year. The total restaurant sector is predicted to see a growth of 0.8%, while the entire onsite category is expected to expand by 1.4%, in real terms. The inflation rate for 2025 is estimated at 2%. IFMA plans to update this forecast in late February 2025.
Established in 1952, the International Foodservice Manufacturers Association, which is a trade group, represents the $1.3 trillion food-away-from-home sector, encompassing manufacturers, distributors, operators, and other stakeholders. The IFMA forecast models were developed in collaboration with Datassential, a foodservice research organization, and validated by operators associated with the five IFMA Foodservice Leadership Councils.
