China Revises Its Climate Action Plan

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Over the years, China’s primary focus was on establishing sectors that could create job opportunities for a large workforce. These sectors required significant amounts of electricity, leading to the widespread construction of coal-fired power plants as the most expedient and cost-effective solution. While renewable energy, particularly solar power, presented an alternative, it was considered a novel and unproven technology. China hesitated to fully embrace it until its reliability had been successfully demonstrated over time.

This apprehension towards adopting new technologies is a familiar trend. Even today, transitions to electric vehicles and heat pumps face similar resistance. Industries such as steel, aluminum, and cement possess the knowledge to manufacture products with significantly reduced emissions, but implementing such changes would require challenging longstanding practices that have been in place for decades, if not centuries. Similarly, the utility sector is resistant to altering conventional methods of generating electricity, which have remained largely unchanged for the past century.

Nevertheless, with the passage of time, new technologies gradually permeate and start displacing outdated practices. What may seem like a sudden transformation often results from years of incremental progress. China recently unveiled a series of new policies indicating a shift in its stance towards renewable energy, signaling a departure from its previous apprehensions.

China Realigns its Climate Objectives

Reports from Bloomberg reveal that within a week, China reversed its prolonged inertia, establishing firm targets for carbon emissions, unveiling ambitious provincial goals for renewable energy consumption, and introducing a multi-year strategy to fortify its power grid. Additionally, the nation’s top planning agency outlined initiatives to enhance the measurement of carbon footprints by industries.

Collectively, these policy changes indicate a shift in Beijing’s priorities. Concerns regarding the state’s capability to ensure a consistent power supply, which had previously fueled China’s reliance on polluting coal, are gradually diminishing. The rapid integration of renewables in China means that clean energy now fulfills a substantial portion of the increased power demand, signaling a reduction in the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels. With the manufacturing of clean technologies now recognized as a crucial driver of economic advancement, the environment stands to benefit significantly.

“This change in approach signifies a significant shift in perspective, highlighting that climate action and economic prosperity are not incompatible,” remarked Cosimo Ries, an analyst at Trivium China. “The government is now confident that economic growth can be propelled by green industries while concurrently addressing climate concerns.”

This shift is beginning to yield results on the ground. Emissions in China dropped by 1% in the second quarter—a notable decline, stated Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute, in a report for Carbon Brief. If China continues to install renewables at a steady pace and witnesses a moderation in the growth of power demand, its carbon output could potentially commence a structural decline this year. This would indicate that Beijing may have already achieved its emissions peak, surpassing its 2030 target by more than five years.

Intensity of Emissions versus Total Emissions

One of the most significant long-term policy adjustments made by China is the shift in emission targets from a focus on their correlation with economic growth to a consideration of overall emission levels. For an extended period, China primarily assessed climate performance based on energy consumption or emissions per unit of gross domestic product. This evaluation allowed the government to showcase environmental progress by reducing the carbon intensity of the economy, despite a surge in total emissions. The new framework outlined earlier this month will officially prioritize total emissions starting in 2026, while intensity targets will initially retain secondary relevance. Post-2030, total volume is slated to become the primary target, with intensity demoted in priority.

The efficacy of this policy alteration hinges on the government’s commitment to ambitious targets, as indicated by Bloomberg. Nevertheless, this strategic shift signals a positive trajectory in combatting climate change. “It marks a constructive step towards the restructuring of China’s energy landscape,” noted Yuhe Gao, a senior campaigner at Greenpeace East Asia in Beijing.

China set record-breaking numbers last year for the installation of new wind turbines and solar panels, with projections hinting at a monumental addition of 300 GW of renewable energy in 2024. Annually, Beijing mandates regional governments to ensure a set percentage of electricity originates from renewable sources. While these targets had traditionally increased gradually by 1-2 percentage points, this year’s objectives have surged nationwide by an average of 4 points, according to Daiwa Capital Markets. In specific regions such as the windy Heilongjiang province and the sunny Hainan island, the set requirements have escalated by over 7 percentage points.

These ambitious targets, deemed challenging and potentially unattainable in some instances by Daiwa analyst Dennis Ip, might symbolize a shift in the government’s stance. Within climate circles, China has been known to establish easily achievable goals and then surpass them. This newfound willingness by Beijing to risk failure in pursuit of significant gains could herald a substantial change.

A Strengthened Energy Grid

The prevalent issue posed by the intermittent nature of solar and wind energy generation is the strain it exerts on China’s power grids, originally designed around coal-based plants that offer flexible operational capabilities. “The primary challenge facing China’s power infrastructure today is its inadequate flexibility to support renewable energy sources,” highlighted Greenpeace’s Gao.

The government has outlined a transformation plan for the grid, aiming to elevate the share of clean energy conveyed through long-distance transmission lines, lower emissions stemming from coal plants serving as backup for renewables, utilize the burgeoning fleet of electric vehicles for energy storage when required, and establish clusters of consumers capable of swiftly reducing demand in anticipation of shortages.

Utilities are actively engaged in system upgrades to address these challenges. The State Grid Corporation of China, covering over 80% of the country, has allocated a record 600 billion yuan ($84 billion) for spending this year, while China Southern Power Grid intends to boost capital expenditure by more than half by 2027.

Key Takeaways

This narrative underscores the gradual acceptance of new technologies, a process that often spans an extended duration (excluding exceptional cases such as the iPhone). While China previously prioritized sustaining employment over emissions reduction, the reliability and scalability of renewable energy have now instilled confidence that China can concurrently achieve economic objectives and environmental goals. Could this newfound trust in renewables extend to other regions globally? The likelihood is undetermined. Nonetheless, technology transfer often transpires between nations, even among those that may be viewed as adversaries.

The tech industry has long championed the ethos of rapid innovation and disruptive advancements, but the timeless adage of slow and steady progress yielding ultimate success remains relevant. It echoes the classic tale of the tortoise and the hare. The pertinent question now lingers: will China’s evolving climate strategy serve as a catalyst for broader shifts in global environmental policies? Only time will unveil the answer.

The turtle will reach the finish line ahead of igniting. To witness this, we shall patiently await a few more decades to uncover the solution.

China’s aim remains an economy achieving net zero by 2060. The trajectory of its greenhouse gas emissions from now until then will impact nearly every individual worldwide as the average global temperatures persist in rising. Mother Nature truly disregards policies and objectives. As the saying goes, good intentions pave the road to hell. Ultimately, all those decorative declarations might merely serve as a eulogy for our planet. It’s crucial for China, as well as all other nations, to achieve success in this matter.