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The AP-900 operates on two AAA batteries, which, while capable of explosion, would likely not create the extensive damage seen in what are claimed to be videos of the recent blasts. If Hezbollah’s pagers are the AR-924 or similar models that utilize lithium-ion batteries, those can pose greater explosion risks. However, a standard pager battery alone is unlikely to generate blasts potent enough to harm multiple individuals.
Jake Williams, vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy and a former National Security Agency official, suggests that the explosions likely involved more than just batteries. He indicates that these pagers might have been intercepted by Israeli authorities and rigged with explosives, underscoring the dangers related to supply chain security, particularly in regions where technology is challenging to transport.
Gold Apollo did not provide a reply to WIRED’s inquiry for additional information.
Williams explains that executing such an operation would require collaboration between personnel handling tech distribution and those involved in Hezbollah’s procurement. “You’re compromising the supply chain, but you would want to ensure that not thousands of explosive pagers are circulating in Lebanon,” he states. “The insider gets them to precisely the right individuals.”
Recent reports suggest that Hezbollah has increased its use of pagers to ensure secure communications after other methods were compromised by Israeli intelligence. An unnamed “Hezbollah official” informed the Associated Press that the group has begun using a “new brand” of pagers that “first heats up, then explodes.”
Lukasz Olejnik, an independent consultant and visiting senior research fellow at King’s College London’s Department of War Studies, suggests that hacking is unlikely to be involved since explosive material likely had to be incorporated inside the pagers for such an effect. Reports indicate the recent delivery of new pagers raises the possibility of the delivery being compromised.
Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck International, a risk management firm focusing on the Middle East and North Africa, notes that if the attack relates to the supply chain, it could have taken years of preparation, including the infiltration of a supplier to conceal explosives within new pagers.
“This represents a significant security breach, especially if explosives were inserted into the devices — which, in my view, is the most plausible scenario,” Horowitz explains. “This suggests Israel has successfully infiltrated Hezbollah’s suppliers to the extent of delivering hundreds, if not thousands, of devices intended for secure communication.”
The situation escalates amidst heightened tensions and conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah in recent months, prompting concerns about the potential for a large-scale war. In the hours preceding the explosions, Israel announced its war aims would include enabling 60,000 residents to return to Northern Israel after being evacuated due to Hezbollah attacks, while not discounting military action.
Horowitz assesses that the incident may be a “prelude to a broader offensive,” intended to disrupt Hezbollah’s communication systems. He notes that organizing the replacement of a large number of pagers would take time. Alternatively, he considers that the attack could serve to illustrate the extent of Israel’s intelligence capabilities.
“This is a significant operation that you wouldn’t undertake merely to inflict injuries,” Horowitz emphasizes.
Even if the explosions weren’t triggered by a cyber event that caused the pager batteries to detonate, it remains feasible that explosives planted within the pagers were detonated remotely, potentially through a specially designed pager message. Some clips appeared to show users checking their pagers at the moment of the explosions, although that could have been coincidental.
This operation could have psychological implications for Hezbollah, considering that bombs might have been concealed in such an innocuous device. Although the attacks on Tuesday were particularly bold, this is not the first instance where Israeli intelligence has reportedly planted explosives in electronic devices..
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