How can this – replace this?
I recently revisited a previous article where I outlined several factors that will be significantly impacted by the future introduction of driverless vehicles.
This list was by no means exhaustive, and I am certain that many additional consequences will emerge as developments continue to unfold rapidly.
One entry that stands out to me, primarily because of its financial implications, relates to air travel. While financial gain isn’t the sole factor driving our interest in driverless cars—safety and the potential reduction in fatalities and injuries are crucial considerations—it’s the monetary aspect that prompts me to reexamine this topic. The potential loss in revenue is enormous and will likely gain the attention of major airlines and booking platforms due to the significant impact of self-driving cars on the domestic airline market.
Current statistics reveal that approximately 2 million passengers fly on domestic flights each day. Some of these routes are under 500 miles long, including flights from L.A. to San Francisco (300 miles), Denver to Salt Lake City (375 miles), Dallas to Kansas City (490 miles), and Atlanta to Washington D.C. (520 miles). These distances might be too long for some individuals to consider driving round-trip in a regular car within one day—or even two—due to the need for breaks, which significantly prolongs travel time. However, a driverless vehicle could efficiently cover these distances without the need for rest, allowing passengers to eat and sleep during the journey.
Moreover, it’s important to factor in not just the travel time but also the hours spent getting to the airport and dealing with check-in, security, and baggage retrieval—all of which accumulate before the flight even takes off.
Taking into account the total cost of a trip is essential as well. A 500-mile car journey might only cost about $75 in fuel. Additionally, travelers would save on airport charges, which typically include a reservation fee of $10, a baggage charge of $15, and travel insurance costing $10, totaling an extra $35. Plus, you can carry more luggage in your car. A significant advantage—one vehicle can accommodate four or five passengers at no additional cost per person.
Very roughly estimating the potential revenue loss for domestic airlines globally, we can calculate:
2 million passengers a day multiplied by a modest average of $100 per ticket equals $6 billion monthly, or over $72 billion annually.
It’s important to note that not all air travel is at risk. Some domestic U.S. flights may average more than 2000 miles round trip, which would not usually be feasible by car, driverless or otherwise. However, shorter domestic routes are certainly within the reach of autonomous vehicles.
While these figures are rough estimates, they still represent significant sums. This raises a critical question: Will the airline industry seek to restrict the rise of autonomous vehicles, or will it choose to invest in the technology?
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