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The conventional belief is that the sedan is becoming extinct. If it’s not an SUV, it seems worthy of a eulogy—farewell, Chevrolet Impala, we will miss you—and a backhoe to seal the fate. However, that notion may be premature, as Lexus’s LS, the flagship model of Toyota’s luxury division, is proving to be a substantial success in the United States, challenging the notion that consumers prefer traditional four-door vehicles.
It appears more buyers have warmed up to Lexus’s unique “spindle grille” design than previously thought. Sales of the newly launched LS soared by 127 percent in 2018, reaching 9,302 units sold, despite the controversial hourly-hourglass shape of the grille—something Lexus believes has contributed to its appeal. Among luxury sedans, it ranked second only to the ever-popular Mercedes-Benz S-Class, which sold 14,978 units. This impressive performance stands in stark contrast to the general decline in sedan sales across America, as demand for SUVs continues to surge. Both Ford and Fiat Chrysler have deemed this trend irreversible and plan to cease sedan production altogether.
Nonetheless, Toyota and Lexus are still heavily investing in the production of new sedans, viewing them as a strategic asset in a market that can be unpredictable, particularly in the face of potential fuel price increases that traditionally lead consumers to shift from SUVs to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles.
“Having cars in your lineup puts you in a stronger position, even if current sales are modest,” said Lexus spokesman Ed Hellwig. He noted that “some consumers still favor the sedan experience,” particularly among multi-car households where advantages like size, fuel efficiency, and maneuverability come into play.
“People may think, ‘I don’t need two SUVs,’ or they simply prefer not to drive one every day,” he added.
For context, the latest LS model replaced an older, less appealing version, so an increase in sales was somewhat anticipated. It’s worth noting that this sedan will likely never replicate the phenomenon of the original LS 400, which launched the Lexus brand in 1989. That model initially stole design cues from the Mercedes S-Class but offered a base price of $35,000, significantly lower than the German luxury vehicle. In 1990, nearly 43,000 buyers chose an LS, marking its peak year.
Nevertheless, for the current LS to more than double its sales from the previous year signifies more than just capitalizing on easy gains. In an environment where new sedans generally struggle, the resurgence of the LS is remarkable. Although the revamped Audi A4 was introduced in 2017, its sales have seen a slight decline for two consecutive years compared to 2016, which marked the last year for the previous model. Astonishingly, Honda’s well-regarded Accord experienced a 9.7 percent drop in sales last year, falling to just over 291,000 units sold.
While Lexus doesn’t openly gloat, the success of the LS, along with the stylish RX SUV and the striking 2019 ES sedan, seems to validate Akio Toyoda’s vision for “no more boring cars”—a pledge that was initially met with skepticism. Whether loved or loathed, it’s clear that Lexus has made bold strides in design, and that distinct spindle grille is a significant element of its revival.
The striking honeycomb design garners less backlash now than it did in 2012, when I first referred to it as the “Predator face” during an auto review for The New York Times. Since then, newer Lexus models, such as the undeniably attractive LC Coupe and the LS, have integrated the grille design more harmoniously. It’s worth remembering that many car designs initially stir outrage yet later find acceptance—examples include the controversial “flame surfacing” of early BMWs, Audis’ oversized grilles, and various revisions of classic models like Corvettes and Mustangs. Eventually, the initial shock often fades.
Lexus appears to embrace the idea that even controversy can be beneficial. “If people are talking about it, that’s good,” Hellwig remarked regarding the notable grille. “At least they see it as something distinct to our brand. The goal was to make the cars stand out, and now they might be merging into the mainstream.”
However, the LS’s strong sales aren’t solely attributed to its design or stylish interior. The LS undercuts its competitors, with a base price of $80,735 that is approximately $4,000 less than a BMW 740i, $4,000 under the Audi A8, and $11,500 cheaper than the Mercedes S450. Its formidable 416-horsepower, twin-turbo V6 engine outpaces the performance of these German rivals as well. (Now, if only Lexus could resolve its frustrating trackpad infotainment system). While European brands rely on pedigree, design, and performance to convey status, Lexus’s reputation for reliability, resale value, and hassle-free dealer service remains influential for buyers, aiding retention of loyal customers or attracting new ones. For high-end sedan buyers, choosing a Lexus might never lead to regrets.
So, is the LS’s triumph merely an outlier in a stagnating four-door market, or indicative of something bigger? The recently released Lexus ES sedan, which hit the market in September, may offer insight. Much like the LS, the redesigned ES replaces a previously dull and unexciting version, and Lexus confidently forecasts that the ES will attract 50,000 buyers annually—an increase of over 20 percent, which would be a notable, profitable outcome for an entry-luxury sedan in any environment. By contrast, Cadillac’s four sedan models, the ATS, CTS, CT6, and XTS, collectively sold just under 50,000 units in 2018.
The takeaway seems to be that success in the sedan market isn’t about merely filling the showroom with sedans (or clearing them out). It’s about offering the right sedans. I maintain that several lackluster sedans, like the Chrysler 200, Dodge Dart, and Jaguar XE, should be seen as failures of execution rather than a sign that sedans as a category are doomed. While the LS has made an impressive comeback among flagship models, Lexus’s smaller IS and GS sedans still face challenges. Notably, the best-selling luxury vehicle in America is now a sedan—the electric Tesla Model 3, which outperformed Lexus’s RX and the BMW 3 Series in overall sales. This indicates that electrification could invigorate the sedan market, as their smaller size, lighter weight, and favorable aerodynamics make them well-suited for electric powertrains. Lexus is actively hybridizing its sedan lineup, including the LS, and other luxury brands like BMW, Mercedes, and Audi are also racing to electrify their four-door ranges.
The true barometer for the market might be the BMW 3 Series. Once the unrivaled king of sport sedans, it has seen a significant drop in sales, with two BMW SUVs—the X3 and X5—overtaking it in popularity. A revamped 3 Series is set to launch in spring, featuring an impressive M340i that I had the chance to drive in Portugal. If this new model can regain some of its previous appeal, it could bode well for the revival of four-door cars that used to dominate American driveways.
“For a long time, choosing an SUV felt like a different path,” Hellwig notes. “However, it wouldn’t be surprising if consumers start to tire of them and return to sedans.”
That’s just speculation, of course. Nevertheless, sedan enthusiasts can hold onto hope.
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