S&P Global Mobility has forecasted a rise of about 1% year-on-year in the new light vehicle sales in June 2024, estimating a volume of 1.40 million units. This projection implies a sales pace of 16.2 million units (seasonally adjusted annual rate: SAAR), marking the highest monthly figure for this metric since May 2021.
Despite recent setbacks like the cyberattack on dealer management software and the stop-sale notice on select Toyota and Lexus vehicles, US auto sales for June are anticipated to build upon the significant growth seen in May.
“The momentum in the market is expected to endure through June,” stated Chris Hopson, who serves as the principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. “With increasing incentives and inventory levels, the monthly sales pace has risen consistently every month in the second quarter. The estimated average SAAR of 16.0 million units for the period would represent the highest quarterly figure since Q2 2021. Although uncertainties persist regarding the outlook for the latter half of the year, concerns about new vehicle affordability and inventory growth are factors to consider.”
As noted by Matt Trommer, an associate director at S&P Global Mobility, “The analysis of retail advertised inventory data for May in the U.S. indicates a continued ascent, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) segment. The inventory of available retail advertised vehicles on a monthly basis has seen a consistent uptrend, reaching 2.79 million vehicles by the end of May, showing a 0.4% increase from April and a 61% surge from the same period last year. This marks the 12th consecutive month of growth, with the rate of increase being the slowest since May 2023.”
While conflicting signals persist in the new vehicle demand environment, it is unlikely that sales volumes will experience significant deviations from the current trajectory in the upcoming months. S&P Global Mobility estimates new vehicle sales volume for the calendar year 2024 to hit around 16.0 million units, reflecting a growth of over 2% or approximately 374,000 units compared to 2023.
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US Light Vehicle Sales |
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Jun 24 (Est) |
May 24 |
Jun 23 |
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|
Total Light Vehicle |
Units, NSA |
1,402,300 |
1,429,028 |
1,368,713 |
|
In millions, SAAR |
16.2 |
15.9 |
16.1 |
|
|
Light Truck |
In millions, SAAR |
13.0 |
12.8 |
12.9 |
|
Passenger Car |
In millions, SAAR |
3.2 |
3.1 |
3.2 |
|
Source: S&P Global Mobility (Est), U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis |
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Long-term projections for S&P Global Mobility’s light vehicle sales forecast emphasize the continued growth in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales. Some month-to-month fluctuations are anticipated in the short term. June is expected to see a BEV share of 7.5%, maintaining a similar percentage from the preceding month and building on the results from Q1 2024. The BEV share is anticipated to climb over the coming periods, driven by the introduction of vehicles like the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue, and Fiat 500e, all set to debut in the next few months, followed by new BEVs including the Jeep Wagoneer S and Volkswagen ID. Buzz anticipated for release in the latter half of 2024.
SOURCE: S&P Global Mobility
